FEMA rates relative earthquake risk for San Joaquin County as relatively high and reports modeled annual probability of 0.80% per year for the area.
FEMA summary
FEMA's profile for San Joaquin County reports modeled annual probability of 0.80% per year for earthquake. FEMA's relative risk rating for the area is relatively high; the annualized frequency is a separate measure.
Hazard metrics cover FEMA county-equivalent geographies rather than individual addresses or parcels. Use local or state hazard maps before making a property, insurance, retrofit, or evacuation decision.
Select a hazard to inspect FEMA's figures for San Joaquin County.
Earthquake
FEMA combines its area-wide loss estimate and community data in this relative rating. Event frequency appears separately below.
Relative FEMA score
99.2/100
FEMA models earthquake annualized frequency as the probability of a qualifying occurrence in a given year across the FEMA geography shown.
The area loss estimate combines FEMA's modeled losses to buildings, population, and agriculture across San Joaquin County. It is not an estimate for a home or address.
Local context
Tracy sits near the western edge of the Central Valley, close enough to major Bay Area and Coast Range faults for a regional earthquake to produce strong shaking even when the rupture is not inside the city. Tracy planning documents identify the San Andreas, Calaveras, Hayward, and Greenville faults as important regional sources of shaking.
For a Tracy home, check building age and construction, foundation and utility connections, and site-specific ground conditions. The city also calls for geotechnical investigation where development may encounter serious geologic hazards, particularly in the southwest planning area.
For homeowners and movers
Preparedness actions
Living in Tracy? Learn how to handle water storage, sanitation, and security in a small space.
The map shows Tracy. All FEMA figures on this page cover San Joaquin County.
The FEMA figures cover San Joaquin County. Address-level conditions require local maps, building records, and property details.
FEMA rates relative earthquake risk for San Joaquin County as relatively high. Its modeled annual probability is 0.80% per year. Damage at a specific address also depends on the building, soil, elevation, and exact hazard zone.
Among 111 California cities covered by this directory, Tracy is Tied #92 for relative earthquake risk based on FEMA's score for San Joaquin County. 3 covered cities share this rank because they use the same FEMA geography. Homes within Tracy can have different soil, elevation, construction, and hazard-zone conditions.
In FEMA's data for San Joaquin County, the highest relative ratings are Drought (Relatively High), Earthquake (Relatively High), and Heat Wave (Relatively High). FEMA uses estimated losses and community data along with event frequency when assigning these ratings.
The hazard numbers cover San Joaquin County. For an individual home, check local fault, flood, fire, evacuation, and building records for the exact address.
FEMA gives San Joaquin County an overall relative risk rating of relatively high. Conditions at a specific home depend on its hazard zones, building type, maintenance, insurance, and access to evacuation routes and emergency services.
Start with this step: Check whether your home has an unbraced cripple wall, an unbolted foundation, or an unsecured water heater; use a qualified local professional for retrofit decisions. Secure tall furniture and heavy objects that could fall where people sleep or sit. Use Ready.gov Earthquakes and local emergency guidance for a complete plan.
Distances are measured between city coordinates.
| City | Distance | Earthquake rating | Relative score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manteca, CA | 13 mi | Relatively High | 99.2 |
| Livermore, CA | 17 mi | Very High | 99.9 |
| Stockton, CA | 19 mi | Relatively High | 99.2 |
| Modesto, CA | 25 mi | Relatively High | 98.8 |
| Antioch, CA | 26 mi | Very High | 99.8 |
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View productHazard metrics come from FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 (March 2023). City population and coordinates come from SimpleMaps US Cities Database. For current conditions, use official local maps, warnings, inspections, and professional advice.