Tracy vs. Modesto Disaster Risk
Tracy and Modesto are about 25 miles apart. Compare earthquake, heat, and flooding risk before looking at the address-level details.
Tracy, CA
Earthquake in Tracy
0.80% per year
Modeled annual probability
FEMA data for San Joaquin County.
Open full city profile →Modesto, CA
Earthquake in Modesto
0.78% per year
Modeled annual probability
FEMA data for Stanislaus County.
Open full city profile →FEMA reports modeled annual earthquake probability of 0.80% per year for San Joaquin County and 0.78% per year for Stanislaus County. Damage at a particular home also depends on the building, site, and exact hazard zone.
Earthquake risk
Tracy, CA
FEMA data: San Joaquin County
- Relative rating
- Relatively High
- Relative score
- 99.2/100
- Modeled annual probability
- 0.80% per year
Modesto, CA
FEMA data: Stanislaus County
- Relative rating
- Relatively High
- Relative score
- 98.8/100
- Modeled annual probability
- 0.78% per year
FEMA models earthquake annualized frequency as the probability of a qualifying occurrence in a given year across the FEMA geography shown. Relative scores compare FEMA geographies; they are not event probabilities.
Heat wave risk
Tracy, CA
FEMA data: San Joaquin County
- Relative rating
- Relatively High
- Relative score
- 95.6/100
- FEMA annualized frequency
- 2.447 per year
Modesto, CA
FEMA data: Stanislaus County
- Relative rating
- Relatively Moderate
- Relative score
- 92.7/100
- FEMA annualized frequency
- 2.486 per year
Occurrence thresholds vary by hazard. The FEMA methodology defines the value for each hazard. Relative scores compare FEMA geographies; they are not event probabilities.
Riverine flooding risk
Tracy, CA
FEMA data: San Joaquin County
- Relative rating
- Relatively Low
- Relative score
- 57.7/100
- FEMA annualized frequency
- 0.625 per year
Modesto, CA
FEMA data: Stanislaus County
- Relative rating
- Relatively Low
- Relative score
- 43.4/100
- FEMA annualized frequency
- 0.417 per year
Occurrence thresholds vary by hazard. The FEMA methodology defines the value for each hazard. Relative scores compare FEMA geographies; they are not event probabilities.
Other things to compare
The property
- ✓Check local fault, shaking, liquefaction, and flood maps for the address.
- ✓Compare construction year, structural system, foundation, and documented retrofit work.
- ✓Review property-specific insurance terms rather than inferring premiums from a county score.
Emergency plans and services
- ✓Compare local alert systems, evacuation routes, hospitals, and utility providers.
- ✓Consider whether heat, smoke, flooding, or road closures can disrupt the same commute and support network.
- ✓Review each city’s full profile for wildfire, drought, storms, and other local hazards.
Before choosing a home
For a specific address, check local hazard maps, permit records, building condition, insurance quotes, emergency alerts, and evacuation routes.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.19.0 (March 2023). The figures cover San Joaquin County and Stanislaus County.